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The writer, a former prime minister of Australia, is global president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and author of ‘The Avoidable War’ Chinese president Xi Jinping’s work report to the 20th Communist party congress this week provides a framework for understanding the underlying ideological direction of China’s domestic and foreign policy for the next five years. Indeed, it is more ideological in tone and content than any that we have seen in the past 40 years. It underscores the Marxist-Leninist worldview that drives Xi’s ambition of making China the pre-eminent regional and global power by mid-century. The document also makes clear that the shift in economic policy direction over the past five years will continue over the next half-decade. It suggests a continuing drift away from market principles towards the more comfortable disciplines of state direction and control. While it does make reference to an earlier party mantra of “giving full play to the role of the market in resource application”, this continues to be tempered by reference to the need for “a decisive role being played by the state”. Also notable is an emphasis on national self-reliance in science and technology, the “strategic” allocation of resources for the development of new technologies and the central deployment of human capital, rather than allowing talent to move according to the competitive opportunities of the market. Add to this a call to “increase the security and resilience of China’s own industrial supply chains” in anticipation of future national security interruption.
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There are some references in the report to market measures, including China’s desire to bring about “the increased internationalising of the renminbi” — part of a more general strategy to reduce the country’s future dependency on global financial markets, which continue to be denominated by the US dollar. China is mindful of the sanctions applied against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and what might happen in the future if there is Chinese military action over Taiwan.