Ukraine's northern border, especially in Belarus, will be worth keeping an eye on in the upcoming weeks.REUTERSMORE ON:UKRAINE WAR

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Vladimir Putin’s three-day war against Ukraine is entering its second year. One thing is certain, 2023 will not be a year of peace. Those calling for negotiations between the two countries are wasting their breath. Neither side is ready for talks, and both sides still think they can win. Right now, Ukraine has momentum after two successful counterattacks late last year in Kharkiv and Kherson, but Russia is finalizing a large-scale mobilization of fresh troops.

As Russia digs deep into its stockpiles of older military hardware, it gets weaker. As Ukraine receives more advanced military hardware from the West, it gets stronger. The big question is whether Western military support for Ukraine is too-little-too-late or just in time to make 2023 a year of victory.

Russia is in the final stages of planning a major offensive operation to regain momentum. There is no doubt Ukraine has a few surprises up its sleeve too.

In the coming months, there are three places to watch:

• The first is the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Russia wants to take the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces that remain out of its control. But the Ukrainians are not giving up without a fight. For months, intensive fighting has taken place around a small city called Bakhmut. After months of daily assaults and high casualties, the Ukrainians still hold the town. The situation remains perilous near Bakhmut.

One Ukrainian friend who was recently there told me he has never seen so many dead bodies in his life — “not even in a Hollywood film.” How long the Ukrainians can — or should — hold this town is anyone’s guess, but they are making the Russians pay dearly to capture it.

• The second is southern Ukraine. It is likely the Ukrainians will try pushing to the Sea of Azov from their frontlines in the Zaporizhzhia region. The main objective will be capturing the city of Melitopol from the Russians. The countryside around Melitopol has been a hotbed of resistance activity for months. It is also within range of Ukraine’s ground-launch missile systems. Its capture would cut Russia’s land bridge to occupied Crimea in half and put Ukraine within striking distance of many military targets on the peninsula, making Russia’s defense of Crimea incredibly difficult.

 it is time to give the Ukrainians longer-range missiles, fighter jets, armed drones       We shouldn’t be scared of a Ukrainian victory.

Helping Ukraine might be expensive, but we cannot afford to fail. There is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put Russia back into its box for a generation. Let’s not blow it.