In 2022, something good came out of something bad. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a remarkable display of unity and determination from the democratic world. The US, the EU, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada and Australia imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia. Ukraine was provided with billions of dollars of military and economic support. In Europe, Germany promised to make historic shifts in its defence and energy policies. Finland and Sweden applied to join Nato. China’s hostility towards Taiwan and its announcement of a “no limits” partnership with Russia also sparked a reaction in the Indo-Pacific. Japan announced a major increase in military spending. The Philippines tightened its ties with America. The Quad nations — India, Japan, Australia and the US — held a summit. Democracies in Europe and Asia also began to work more closely together. For the first time, Japan, South Korea and Australia attended a Nato summit. This year, it will be considerably tougher to maintain the unity of the advanced democracies. Active and engaged US leadership has been crucial to the democratic world’s response to the Russia-China partnership. But serious tensions are emerging between Washington and its allies. In Europe, the key issues are both strategic and economic. The western alliance is openly divided over future military aid to Ukraine. Those divisions were on full display at an allied meeting in Ramstein on Friday, when Germany resisted intense pressure to allow the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
 While the headlines after the Ramstein meeting focused on Germany’s isolation, the divisions within the western alliance are more complex than that. There is a hawkish wing that includes Poland, the Nordic countries, the Baltic states and the UK, and is pressing for the rapid transfer of more advanced weaponry, including tanks, to Ukraine.
 The US is somewhere in the middle between the hawks and the ultra-cautious Germans. The hawks worry that the Biden administration has allowed itself to be spooked by the threat of nuclear war and so been too timid about the delivery of advanced weaponry, such as longer-range missiles. But the criticisms are muted because the US is by far the largest donor of military and financial aid to Ukraine. These divisions are manageable for now. But, if the war turns against Ukraine this spring, the recriminations could get nasty.