When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin “today’s era is not of war” last month, the West welcomed his comments as a sign the world’s largest democracy was finally coming off the fence about Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron praised Modi and the White House lauded what it called a “statement of principle.”
But the reality, analysts say, is less straightforward.
Rather than cutting economic ties with the Kremlin, India has undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizer – giving Putin a vital financial lifeline.
New Delhi has repeatedly abstained from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations – providing Moscow with a veneer of international legitimacy. And in August, India participated in Russia’s large-scale Vostok military exercises alongside China, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan – where Moscow paraded its vast arsenal.
Last week, India abstained from another UN draft resolution condemning Russia over its sham referendums in four regions of Ukraine, which have been used as a pretext by Moscow to illegally annex Ukrainian territory – significantly upping the stakes in the war.
Superficially at least, India and China also appear to have similar positions on the Ukraine war. Both have positioned themselves as neutral onlookers rather than vocal opponents. Both have also called for peace – but refused to condemn the invasion outright.
But that’s where the similarities appear to end, analysts say.
China has decried Western sanctions and repeatedly blamed the United States and NATO for the conflict, parroting Russia’s view that NATO precipitated the crisis by expanding eastwards. Chinese state media has also amplified Russian talking points and disinformation. India on the other hand has steered clear of criticizing NATO and has used stronger language to call for peace as the war intensifies.
But despite India’s increasing closeness with the West, it is prioritizing the dangers in its own backyard, analysts say.
“China remains the big threat on India’s borders and India would not want the Russia-China alliance to become very strong,” said Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research. “That is not in India’s interest.”