War is contagious. Instability breeds more instability when war destabilizes a regional power. This is what appears to be happening now to Russia’s south. From Armenia to Tajikistan, conflict and discord are escalating to dangerous levels just as Russia appears at its weakest point in its war.

With Russia overextended in Ukraine, states in Russia’s sphere of influence are predictably becoming less stable as those who have been under Vladimir Putin’s thumb see an opportunity to punch back.

Russia’s power projection has been a source of both meddling and stability across these regions. Even as he has stoked separatist movements in countries that he deemed too independent, Putin has largely succeeded in keeping a lid on major transborder conflicts.

A decline in Russian influence is as likely to lead to chaos as it is to a positive period of transition. Power abhors a vacuum. The most immediate danger comes from two conflicts that escalated just this month.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have had frequent border clashes, even before the Soviet Union collapsed. That conflict has typically centered on Nagorno-Karabakh, a contested area internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but claimed by Armenia. Conflict spiked in 2020, but Russia mediated a deal and sent forces to keep the peace.

Earlier this month, simmering tensions erupted into a shooting war. While both sides blame the other, the initial cross-border attack appears to have come from Azerbaijan, expanding the conflict beyond disputed territory into Armenia proper. Hundreds have been killed.

Armenia purportedly falls within Russia’s protection as a military ally under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a defense alliance led by Russia with six other former Soviet states. The failure of any CSTO state, including Russia, to come to Armenia’s aid suggests that alliance is all but dead.

It’s not likely a coincidence that Azerbaijan struck Armenia shortly after Ukraine routed Russia from much of the Kharkiv region.