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Morgan Stanley cuts India's growth forec

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Gross domestic product growth will be 7.6% for fiscal 2023 and 6.7% for fiscal 2024, 30 basis points lower than the previous estimates, the brokerage said in a note dated Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecasts for India's economic growth in the next two fiscal years, saying a global slowdown, surging oil prices and weak domestic demand would take a toll on Asia's third-largest economy.

Gross domestic product growth will be 7.6 percent for fiscal 2023 and 6.7 percent for fiscal 2024, 30 basis points lower than the previous estimates, the brokerage said in a note dated Tuesday.


The cut reflects a pronounced economic impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has driven up crude prices, pushing retail inflation in India - the world's third-biggest oil importer - to its highest in 17 months.

"The key channels of impact will likely be higher inflation, weaker consumer demand, tighter financial conditions, the adverse impact on business sentiment, and a delay in capex recovery," said Upasana Chachra, Morgan Stanley's chief economist for India.

Both inflation and the country's current account deficit will likely get worse due to broad-based price pressures and record-high commodity prices, she added.

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Gross domestic product growth will be 7.6% for fiscal 2023 and 6.7% for fiscal 2024, 30 basis points lower than the previous estimates, the brokerage said in a note dated Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecasts for India's economic growth in the next two fiscal years, saying a global slowdown, surging oil prices and weak domestic demand would take a toll on Asia's third-largest economy.

Gross domestic product growth will be 7.6 percent for fiscal 2023 and 6.7 percent for fiscal 2024, 30 basis points lower than the previous estimates, the brokerage said in a note dated Tuesday.


The cut reflects a pronounced economic impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has driven up crude prices, pushing retail inflation in India - the world's third-biggest oil importer - to its highest in 17 months.

"The key channels of impact will likely be higher inflation, weaker consumer demand, tighter financial conditions, the adverse impact on business sentiment, and a delay in capex recovery," said Upasana Chachra, Morgan Stanley's chief economist for India.

Both inflation and the country's current account deficit will likely get worse due to broad-based price pressures and record-high commodity prices, she added.

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