The headquarters of the security in Tiraspol, the main city of the region

Military unit in Barkani, a village on the Tiraspol border

The aerial towers of Soviet-era radio stations were used to broadcast Russian news

These attacks did not result in any injuries, but the authorities in the Moldovan capital, Chisinau, described the explosions as a deliberate provocation to plunge the region into the current conflict.

A radio tower collapsed in Transnistria on April 22nd

But who carried out the attacks and why?

Here we present four scenarios of how the conflict in Transnistria could escalate, depending on who is behind these incidents and their motives.

1- Russia and the strange coincidence 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused the Russian security services of being behind the recent bombings, saying that Moscow was trying to destabilize the region and lure other countries into the Ukraine war.

The alleged action in Transnistria coincided with a shift in Russia's war strategy, which now appears to be focused on controlling eastern and southern Ukraine.

Russian Major General Rustam Minnikaev, acting commander of the Central Military District, said on April 22 that full control of southern Ukraine would provide "another exit into Transnistria."

Minnekaev claimed this without citing any evidence that "there are cases of persecution of the Russian-speaking population" in the breakaway region.

This argument is similar to one of Moscow's original reasons for the war in Ukraine, but it is not clear whether the Kremlin agreed with this comment.

Moldova is a former Soviet republic.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not comment on issues related to the military campaign. The Russian Defense Ministry did not deny General Minkayev's statements.

The United States had earlier warned that Russian forces might launch "fake flag" operations to create a pretext to invade other countries' territories.

2- Moldova and curbing Russian influence

Transnistria is ruled by a de facto pro-Russian government that declared itself independent after a referendum in September 2006 .

Moldova and a large part of the international community did not recognize the vote.

The breakaway region is supported economically, politically and militarily by Russia.

Many Russian speakers in Moldovan society believe that the government in Chisinau will be able to orchestrate a false incident to increase the terrorist threat level and ban celebrations on May 9 .

This date is celebrated in Russia and some countries of the former Soviet Union as the anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany at the end of World War II.

Terror threat levels have already been raised to red in Transnistria and the victory parade that was scheduled for May 9 has been cancelled .

Moldovan President Maya Sandu, a staunch pro-EU, signed a law banning the use of the St. George ribbon, a Russian military symbol, as well as the display of the letters "Z" and "V" in the context of Russia's "military aggression" against Ukraine.