WASHINGTON —
Far from bogging down in a stalemate, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has evolved into an increasingly dangerous conflict as it passes the six-month mark, with fighting around Europe’s largest nuclear plant, a high-profile assassination in Moscow, escalating threats and daring Ukrainian attacks in Russian-held territory.
“The dynamic of the battlefield” is shifting, said retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former commander of U.S. Army Europe. Armed with increasingly lethal weapons from the U.S. and other allies, Ukraine has been able to occasionally seize the initiative and surprise Russian forces.
It is not clear, however, how long that can last or whether Ukraine can build on those small victories enough to dictate the course of the war.
“The war is far from over,” said Daniel Serwer, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foreign Policy Institute who specializes in the study of war. “The Ukrainians lack the manpower to conduct a conventional offense but are using their supplies of NATO-origin artillery, drones, antitank missiles and other weapons to batter the Russians and their supply lines.”
The six-month mark in a war that has killed thousands of people and driven millions from their homes overlapped with a normally joyous national holiday. Wednesday marks 31 years since the country broke free from the collapsing Soviet Union.
Independence Day was greeted by Ukrainians with a mixture of defiance and dread, as the U.S. State Department said it had “information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days” and repeated entreaties that U.S. citizens leave the country.
The warnings prompted authorities to ban mass gatherings in the capital, Kyiv, and in the country’s second city, Kharkov, and order residents to shelter indoors.
Tensions are especially running high over Russia’s claim that Ukraine carried out the assassination Saturday of Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent far-right Russian political theorist and herself a vociferous proponent of the war.
The government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied any involvement in the weekend car bombing — a dramatic strike on the outskirts of the generally safe Russian capital that touched the inner ring of President Vladimir Putin’s confidants.