The poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has sparked lively debate throughout the Western world about the need for a fundamental rethink in relations with the Putin regime. New sanctions are reportedly being discussed, while the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project hangs in the balance. The incident has all the makings of a geopolitical watershed.
As the international community grapples with the Navalny poisoning, Ukrainian officials are conspicuously absent. Despite being at the epicenter of the post-2014 spike in tensions between Russia and the West, Ukraine has so far played almost no role in the present round of diplomatic deliberations over how best to handle the Kremlin.
This lack of involvement is misguided. It is rooted in the Zelenskyy government’s short-sighted desire to avoid anything that might further antagonize Moscow. In reality, Kyiv needs a far more pragmatic foreign policy that recognizes the long-term nature of Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine and acknowledges the necessity of positioning Ukraine as a key player in global efforts to counter the Kremlin.
The events of the past six years have demonstrated that Ukraine is doomed to live alongside a hostile Russia. This is the simple truth, no matter who occupies the president’s office in Kyiv. Ukraine’s historical, cultural, economic, and geographic closeness to Russia mean that Moscow will never willingly allow Kyiv to embrace a path towards Euro-Atlantic integration.
Even strict neutrality would be unlikely to suffice. From a Kremlin perspective, the mere existence of an independent and democratic Ukraine poses an existential threat to the Putin regime and to the future internal cohesion of the Russian Federation.
The long-term character of the current confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is well understood in the Kremlin. This can be seen in Russia’s present approach towards Ukraine, with Vladimir Putin in no great rush to seize control of the country. Instead, he is happy to let the bloody stalemate and partial occupation in the east of the country grind on indefinitely.
Meanwhile, Moscow is also playing a longer game, fueling internal divisions and seeding anti-Western sentiment within Ukrainian society as part of a strategy to derail today’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory and gradually reclaim lost ground over the coming decade as Ukraine grows less united and more internationally isolated.
In Kyiv, President Zelenskyy and his inner circle often seem oblivious to Russia’s true intentions and appear to believe the conflict can be resolved in the near future. Their talk of achieving peace “by the end of this year” still resonates with the more credulous elements of the war-weary Ukrainian electorate. However, this optimistic outlook is grounded in dangerously wishful thinking rather than hard geopolitical reality.
Ukraine urgently needs to abandon misleading expectations of an imminent breakthrough towards a sustainable peace.