US-Russia conflict (Battle of Venezuela)
🔴 Before starting to talk about the American-Russian conflict to win the very important battle of Venezuela in the balance of power equation, it is necessary to know this important information about the state of Venezuela:
It has the largest oil reserves in the world (300 billion barrels).
Oil in Venezuela accounts for 95% of the country's revenue
The population is more than 29 million, 77% of whom live in extreme poverty
Venezuela has debts of more than 160 billion dollars
Venezuela's oil exports are estimated at about 600,000 barrels per day, which is a very weak number compared to the size of the very huge reserves
Venezuela recorded a cumulative inflation of 686.4% in 2021, according to the Central Bank, the highest in the world.
In the last 10 years, about 08 million Venezuelans have fled the country to escape poverty
Venezuela, which is close to Russia (socialist), is suffering from a stifling economic crisis that has been exacerbated by the US sanctions that have reduced the country's ability to attract foreign investments in the oil sector due to the oil companies' fear of US sanctions that will affect them if they invest in Venezuela.
Some wonder what these numbers have to do with the current crisis!
Follow me closely the sequence of events:
⚫ Before US President Joe Biden decided to ban the import of Russian oil and gas (on March 08, 2022), a high-ranking US delegation headed by the White House Senior Adviser on Latin American Affairs made a #surprise visit to Venezuela on March 05, 2022 and held talks for the first time in many years with the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas
The lengthy talks dealt with US economic sanctions on Venezuela, as well as the issue of American prisoners in Venezuela
On March 09, 2022, Venezuela released one of the detainees, in a move that was favored by Washington
With regard to easing US sanctions on Venezuela, Washington has made the decision conditional on shipping Venezuelan oil directly to America.
Now we are faced with three scenarios:
The first scenario: Caracas accepting the American condition, and this will be a strong blow in the back of Russia, as America buys oil from Venezuela and resells it to its partners in Europe, which makes America achieve huge additional profits and contributes to isolating Russia more and Europe gradually gets rid of its energy dependence on Russia, while Venezuela will recover With the removal of sanctions, the oil sector will witness a major boom that will allow Caracas to return to life, especially with the return to the SWIFT system and the entry of foreign companies to invest there
The second scenario is Maduro’s rejection of the American condition and his choice of loyalty to Russia. Here we are faced with two possibilities:
The first possibility is the uprising of the Venezuelan people, who suffer from extreme poverty, against the president, especially since the opposition in Venezuela is eagerly waiting for the opportunity to overthrow Maduro.
The second possibility is Maduro's suppression of any opposition voices, and this would increase the rot inside Venezuela
📌 To sum up, Russia will do the impossible in order to obstruct the American-Venezuelan rapprochement, and on the other hand, America will try to give Venezuela the kiss of life in order to weaken Russia further and destroy its economy... Waiting for Maduro's decision. Will he declare allegiance to Putin or will he choose the statement that there is no permanent friend and no permanent enemy there permanent interests.