LONDON (Reuters) - Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler. President Vladimir Putin is now betting that sky-rocketing energy prices and possible shortages this winter will persuade Europe to strong arm Ukraine into a truce -- on Russia's terms.
That, say two Russian sources familiar with Kremlin thinking, is the only path to peace that Moscow sees, given Kyiv says it will not negotiate until Russia leaves all of Ukraine.
"We have time, we can wait," said one source close to the Russian authorities, who declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the media.
"It's going to be a difficult winter for Europeans. We could see protests, unrest. Some European leaders might think twice about continuing to support Ukraine and think it's time for a deal."
A second source close to the Kremlin said Moscow thought it could already detect faltering European unity and expected that process to accelerate amid winter hardship.
"It will be really tough if it (the war) drags into the autumn and winter. So there's hope they (the Ukrainians) will ask for peace," said the source.
There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, which denies Russia uses energy as a political weapon, to a request for comment.
Ukraine and its staunchest Western backers say they have no plans to fold and U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say they so far see no signs of support for Ukraine wavering.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in a tweet to Ukrainians on their national day, said: "The EU has been with you in this fight from the very beginning. And we will be for as long as it takes."
Backed by billions in U.S. and other Western military aid, training and shared intelligence, and with a series of morale-boosting attacks on high-profile Russian targets behind it, Kyiv thinks it has a chance of changing the facts on the ground.
"In order for negotiations with Russia to become possible, it is necessary to change the status quo at the front in favour of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, told Reuters.
"It is necessary that the Russian army suffer significant tactical defeats."
Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian attempts to capture the capital Kyiv and the second city Kharkiv; have regularly destroyed and disrupted Russian supply lines, and sank the Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, as well as inflicting major damage on a Russian air base in annexed Crimea.
Kyiv has also long been talking about a major counter-offensive to retake the south, though Russia has been busy building up its own forces there, and it's unclear if and when that will materialise.