Belarus Army Would Likely Have Little Impact in Ukraine War
Statements made this week by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have reignited fears that his army could join Russian forces in the war against Ukraine.
By YURAS KARMANAU, Associated Press
TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Statements made this week by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko have reignited fears that his army could join Russian forces in Moscow's war against Ukraine, but the authoritarian leader appears reluctant to lend his troops to the effort, despite perceived pressure from Moscow.
Russia has already used Belarus, its longtime and dependent ally, as a staging ground to send troops and missiles into Ukraine. Analysts say if Belarus' small and inexperienced military gets involved, the additional troops could help Moscow cut off some key transportation corridors, but likely wouldn't significantly boost Russian President Vladimir Putin's capabilities on the battlefield.
“The Belarusian army is weak and demotivated, and it is not willing to fight with Ukraine, which means that Lukashenko will try to give Putin anything but Belarusian soldiers,” Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press on Tuesday. “Lukashenko is letting Putin know: ‘I will help, but I won’t fight.'"
Lukashenko announced Monday that he and Putin agreed to create a joint “regional grouping of troops” and that several thousand Russian soldiers will be stationed in Belarus. Lukashenko offered no details about where the troops will be deployed, and Russia's motives weren't immediately clear, though the remarks come as Moscow is struggling to replenish troops lost on the battlefield.
Lukashenko also said that Kyiv is plotting to attack Belarus — and he cautioned Ukraine against attacking “even one meter of our territory with their dirty hands.” His defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, also warned Ukraine not to provoke Belarus, saying, “We don’t want to fight" and stressing a day later, however, that the joint force is for defense.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured leaders of the Group of Seven industrial powers on Tuesday that Kyiv isn't planning military actions against Belarus. He said Moscow “is trying to directly draw Belarus into this war.”
Oleksiy Danilov, head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, told Ukrainian television Tuesday that Belarus is being “held hostage by Russia.”
Fears of Russian pressure on Belarus aren't unfounded. Lukashenko, an authoritarian leader, has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for 28 years while relying on Russia’s political and economic support. Moscow has pumped billions of dollars into shoring up Lukashenko's Soviet-style, state-controlled economy with cheap energy and loans. And in 2020, the Kremlin helped Lukashenko survive the largest mass protests in the country’s history, following a presidential election that the opposition and the West denounced as rigged.