Fear is spreading among Russian vacationers in Crimea, Zelenskyj accuses Russia of “terror” around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. The evening overview.

It is still unclear when Ukraine's offensive in Cherson, which was announced four weeks ago, will begin. The Ukrainian General Dmytro Marchenko has now hinted in an interview (source here) when things could start and how Ukraine is currently organizing the preparations.

Here are the general's most important statements in bullet points:

1. Marchenko does not see the troops that Russia is currently assembling in southern Ukraine as an obstacle to the success of the offensive. He considers his own artillery to be strong enough to eliminate the new formations as well. Ten Russian ammunition depots and command posts alone were destroyed in the past week.

2. The Ukrainian military currently has no information on how many Russian troops are exactly in the south. It is estimated that there were 25 battalions, which would correspond to around 20,000 men at full strength.

3. Nothing is known about the exact plans of the Russians either. Marchenko expects two local offensives. The aim could be to capture the city of Mykolaiv, which is around 100 kilometers by road northwest of Cherson and had around half a million inhabitants before the war.

4. All bridges over the Dnieper are currently impassable for the Russian military, except for the crossing at a large dam. The could not be shot at so easily because of the risk of a dam bursting. But as soon as this crossing was impassable and the Russians could no longer get supplies across the Dnieper, the offensive on Cherson would begin. However, the general did not want to commit himself to an exact date or period. It is also important that enough Western weapons are available.

5. Addressing the residents of the city of Kherson, he says: “I would like to tell the people to be patient for a while. It won't take as long as everyone expects. It will be quick. Let her hold out a little longer. You will soon see and hear everything.

6. Marchenko believes that a referendum that will be successful for Moscow and result in a union with Russia is out of the question. The Russian secret service also knows that a "Crimea scenario" will not work in southern Ukraine.

7. The goal of the Ukrainian military, says Marchenko, is to end the active phase of the war by the end of the year. After that there would only be local fighting. He doesn't explain exactly what that means.

When it comes to what is perhaps the most important question, after the end of the war, the general has more precise ideas. After the atrocities committed by Butcha and Irpin, he considers a negotiated peace with Moscow to be impossible. The aim is to liberate the whole of Ukraine militarily. In the spring of 2023, he says, assuming enough Western weapons are delivered, "we'll be able to celebrate victory."