WASHINGTON — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party reshapes the dynamics of the 2024 Senate race in Arizona, creating fresh obstacles for Democrats to hold the seat in two years.
Sinema’s announcement Friday that she will become an independent prompted fury and told-you-so reactions from her Democratic critics, who vowed to fight to win back the seat in 2024. Sinema’s office said she will continue to not attend meetings of the Democratic caucus but intends to keep her committee seats assigned to her by Democrats, preserving the 51-49 Senate balance.
While Sinema won’t yet say whether she will run for re-election as an independent, the prospect shakes up the dynamics of the race. If she runs, it could mean a three-way battle between a Republican, a Democrat and Sinema as an independent.
And if Sinema — who despite being a regular headache for her party leaders remains ideologically closer to Democrats than the GOP — pulls more votes from Democratic-leaning voters, that could pave the way for a Republican candidate to win in 2024.
“I am not surprised. But I’m still shockingly disappointed at how awful she continues to be,” said Michael Slugocki, an outgoing vice chair of the Arizona Democratic Party. He said Sinema has had “no relationship and no contact with the state party for months” and did not inform them prior to her decision.
“It does shake up this race” in 2024, he said. “She’s deliberately trying to make it difficult for Democrats in Arizona.”
He added that her decision could also make it harder for Democrats to carry Arizona on the presidential level again in two years, if she spends two years attacking her party and splintering its successful coalition. “It does make things more difficult for Joe Biden, but I don’t think she cares at all.”
Already, Arizona Republicans are buzzing about Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb running for Senate with the support of gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who narrowly lost her race and recently encouraged him to run against Sinema, according to a confidant of hers who detailed the conversation to NBC on condition of anonymity in order to not publicly disclose private conversations.
Kari is getting lots of calls but she’s pretty disillusioned right now and she likes the sheriff and told him she wants to see him run for senate,” the Lake confidant said. “Lamb is beloved by the base and could really clear a primary field.”
Sinema’s decision comes as her approval ratings among Arizona Democratic voters have tanked, raising questions about her ability to win renomination. A bipartisan poll by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research in September found that Sinema's favorable rating among Arizona Democrats was 37%. Her rating was 36% among Republicans and 41% among independents. Overall in the state, her favorable rating was 37%, with an unfavorable rating of 54%.