1. Risk Assessment:
a. Risk Identification:
- Hazard Analysis: Assessing potential risks associated with new insurance products by identifying various hazards (e.g., mortality, morbidity, lapse rates, etc.).
- Data Collection: Gathering relevant historical data, considering factors like demographics, health statistics, and market trends.
b. Risk Quantification:
- Probability Estimation: Utilizing statistical models to estimate the likelihood of occurrence of different risks based on historical data and actuarial assumptions.
- Severity Assessment: Evaluating the potential financial impact of identified risks on the insurance company.
c. Scenario Analysis:
- Stress Testing: Conduct scenario-based stress tests to simulate extreme events or adverse scenarios to understand their impact on the insurance product's viability.
- Sensitivity Analysis: Assessing how changes in key variables (e.g., interest rates, mortality rates) affect the risk exposure of the product.
2. Pricing Strategies:
a. Premium Rate Determination:
- Risk Loading: Calculating the risk-adjusted premium rates by incorporating estimated risks into pricing formulas.
- Mortality/Morbidity Table Development: Developing mortality and morbidity tables specific to the product to estimate future claims.
b. Pricing Structures:
- Experience Analysis: Analyzing historical data to understand policyholder behavior and mortality/morbidity patterns, is essential for determining pricing structures.
- Actuarial Models: Using actuarial models (e.g., life contingencies, survival models) to project future cashflows, claim amounts, and policyholder behavior.
c. Market and Regulatory Considerations:
- Competitive Analysis: Evaluating competitors' products and pricing strategies to ensure competitiveness.
- Regulatory Compliance: Ensuring that the pricing aligns with regulatory requirements and standards (e.g., minimum capital requirements, and solvency ratios).
3. Technical Aspects:
a. Mathematical Models:
- Rate Making Models: Employing mathematical models (e.g., credibility theory, loss ratio method) to determine appropriate premium rates.
- Simulation and Stochastic Models: Utilizing simulation techniques and stochastic modeling for pricing uncertainty and risk assessment.
b. Actuarial Assumptions:
- Assumption Setting: Defining and justifying key assumptions related to mortality, morbidity, lapse rates, and investment returns used in pricing models.
- Sensitivity Testing: Testing the impact of variations in assumptions on pricing outcomes.
4. Financial Models:
- Cashflow Projection: Building comprehensive models that predict future inflows and outflows based on premiums, claims, and investments.
- Profitability Assessment: Evaluating the expected profitability of insurance products by forecasting revenues and expenses over time.
- Liability Projections: Estimating future liabilities, including reserves needed to cover policyholder obligations, considering factors like policy durations, mortality rates, and policyholder behavior.