Probably not, experts say, given the shrunken state of its military industrial sector. A look at a major munitions maker helps explain why.

The giant robot arms and high-tech heaters at one of Europe’s largest ammunition plants have been whirring around the clock since the start of the war in Ukraine to produce more desperately needed 155-millimeter artillery shells. If all goes as planned, the factory’s parent company, Nammo, will be turning out as many as 200,000 of the shells a year by 2028 — up to 20 times more than its prewar production.

But those won’t be nearly enough — nor will they come soon enough — at a time when Ukraine’s forces say they need an average of 250,000 155-millimeter shells each month to repel Russia’s advance. In fact, the combined output of all 11 of the factories that make the shells in Europe will still fall far short of meeting Ukraine’s desperate needs.It’s a problem that has reverberated across NATO nations, more than three decades after the end of the Cold War led many to pare military spending to the bone in favor of generous social welfare spending. And now, as even the United States is struggling to meet the demand for weapons systems and other materiel, officials and analysts increasingly question whether Europe will be able to expand production from its shrunken military-industrial sector enough to provide Ukraine the assistance it needs. The answer, it appears, is no, at least in the short term. The NATO allies hope to meet Ukraine’s immediate needs from stockpiles at home and abroad for now as they race to increase production as best they can should the war drag on for years. “It’s a war about industrial capacity now, both to help the Ukrainians, but also to rebuild stocks,” Nammo’s chief executive, Morten Brandtzaeg, said in a telephone interview from Washington, where he was meeting with officials in Congress and at the Pentagon. “I think we should have understood this way before, and acted way before, but we are where we are.” 

Mr. Brandtzaeg said it was “a longer route in Europe” to get countries onboard with rebuilding the industry compared to in the United States, which he called “less protectionist” with “more of a long-term view on the market.”

Last month, the European Union agreed to spend up to $2.14 billion to help deliver 1 million rounds of 155-millimeter shells to Ukraine within 12 months — a benchmark the United States, with its more robust stockpiles and streamlined funding systems, has already met, but that Europe will have to strain to achieve.

“It is possible that we might not be able to reach it,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis, the foreign minister of Lithuania, one of the most forceful advocates for helping Ukraine.That will depend to a great extent on Nammo, one of the continent’s largest manufacturers of the shells.